I just dont think SWAT has the star power to cover what Tomb Raider will likely do... I think Tomb Raider is good for at *least* $21 million. So for SWAT to be a good cover it would need in the $25+ million range.
Fishburne? Farell? LL Cool J?
None of those guys can carry a movie over $20 million.
Some guy that has never directed a movie before? "Even police have to call 911"?
I think this one is flop city. At the very least, I think there is a whole lot better chance of Tomb Raider hitting in the 30s than SWAT hitting the 30s.
Fishburne? Farell? LL Cool J?
None of those guys can carry a movie over $20 million.
Some guy that has never directed a movie before? "Even police have to call 911"?
I think this one is flop city. At the very least, I think there is a whole lot better chance of Tomb Raider hitting in the 30s than SWAT hitting the 30s.
Here's why I took Swat:
1. It's Samuel L. Jackson, Colin Farrel, Ladie's Love, and Michelle Rodriguez. This is an all-star cast. Sure, you could compare it to the Italian Job but I've chosen to ignore that.
2. Buzz. There's some early buzz for this film, more than we've seen for Tomb Raider. Not a lot, but I've seen some anticipation for this flick on some message boards. The 2 movies generating the most buzz at the tail end of the summer season, IMO, are this film, and Freddy vs. Jason. Tomb Raider, on the other hand, isn't really being talked about at all, and it's coming out tomorrow. It's buzz score is 17, that's dismal... But, it's possible they filtered out some of the searches that might have been for the video game. Anyways, it's showing every sign of being a huge flop.
3. Studio tracking. This is from MArtin Grove's column at theHollywoodReporter.com:
""S.W.A.T.," which won't go head to head with any other wide openings the weekend of Aug. 8-10 since "Freaky" arrives on Wednesday of that week, is reportedly tracking great and showing signs of becoming a solid late summer hit for Columbia. Directed by Clark Johnson, the police action thriller stars Samuel L. Jackson and Colin Farrell.
In one of the summer's smartest marketing moves, Columbia took advantage of what it correctly anticipated would be a huge opening for "Bad Boys II" to promote "S.W.A.T." "We've got a trailer on 'S.W.A.T.' attached to 'Bad Boys,' which played great this weekend," Sony Pictures Entertainment vice chairman Jeff Blake told me Sunday. "We're certainly looking forward to its opening Aug. 8. Hopefully, everybody who's seeing 'Bad Boys' (is going to get) excited about 'S.W.A.T.' also. So the summer's certainly not over for us."
All in all, I see this one maybe being close with the -3 million thrown in the mix, but, most signs point to S.W.A.T. in my opinion, even though, yeah, the trailer is weak.
1. It's Samuel L. Jackson, Colin Farrel, Ladie's Love, and Michelle Rodriguez. This is an all-star cast. Sure, you could compare it to the Italian Job but I've chosen to ignore that.
2. Buzz. There's some early buzz for this film, more than we've seen for Tomb Raider. Not a lot, but I've seen some anticipation for this flick on some message boards. The 2 movies generating the most buzz at the tail end of the summer season, IMO, are this film, and Freddy vs. Jason. Tomb Raider, on the other hand, isn't really being talked about at all, and it's coming out tomorrow. It's buzz score is 17, that's dismal... But, it's possible they filtered out some of the searches that might have been for the video game. Anyways, it's showing every sign of being a huge flop.
3. Studio tracking. This is from MArtin Grove's column at theHollywoodReporter.com:
""S.W.A.T.," which won't go head to head with any other wide openings the weekend of Aug. 8-10 since "Freaky" arrives on Wednesday of that week, is reportedly tracking great and showing signs of becoming a solid late summer hit for Columbia. Directed by Clark Johnson, the police action thriller stars Samuel L. Jackson and Colin Farrell.
In one of the summer's smartest marketing moves, Columbia took advantage of what it correctly anticipated would be a huge opening for "Bad Boys II" to promote "S.W.A.T." "We've got a trailer on 'S.W.A.T.' attached to 'Bad Boys,' which played great this weekend," Sony Pictures Entertainment vice chairman Jeff Blake told me Sunday. "We're certainly looking forward to its opening Aug. 8. Hopefully, everybody who's seeing 'Bad Boys' (is going to get) excited about 'S.W.A.T.' also. So the summer's certainly not over for us."
All in all, I see this one maybe being close with the -3 million thrown in the mix, but, most signs point to S.W.A.T. in my opinion, even though, yeah, the trailer is weak.
I hope no one used my last post in this thread as a factor in betting on an American Wedding over... after posting this my opinion changed, although I should have posted my under 42 play. The reason I didn't was because I said I wasn't going to bet on over/unders anymore and I didn't want JCambert to call me a degenerate gambler again, lol. Anyways, shit, that under 33 + 400 at Intertops might actually hit, I ****in hope not, I took the next bracket above it although I was chomping at the bit to hit the under 33 at those odds. It should have decent word of mouth, though, I saw it and it was very funny, a lot better than the second one. I'm sure that the reason this one didn't start very strong is due to American Pie 2's mediocrity compared to the comic genius that was American Pie, hahah.
